After holding off Annabelle’s possessed doll in a photo finish at the box office last week, Gone Girl faces a new round of challengers in what could be another tight race, this time pitting the David Fincher-Ben Affleck thriller against Robert Downey Jr., Dracula and one peeved kid. And while the field is becoming overcrowded with fall entries, the race should help continue the box office’s rebound from a dismal September.
Although it’s taken some hits from critics as a typical courtroom drama, The Judge has wattage in the form of Downey and Robert Duvall. The $ 50 million pic from Warner Bros. and Village Roadshow, though, could be the season’s first victim of the overcrowded field. Like Gone Girl, it’s an R-rated drama starring a comic-book movie superhero. But it lacks the public chatter of Gone Girl, and could be cannibalized by adult competition. It’s on track for $ 13M-$ 17M, though estimates have ranged from $ 15M-$ 22M on all the newcomers, as has their expected order in the derby.
Despite an ending that is dividing audiences in exit polling, Fox’s Gone Girl should see a healthy hold from its $ 37.5 million debut to retain the No. 1 position with a haul of $ 20M-$ 22M and a screen count expanded to 3,284. If Gone Girl does hold, it would be the first R-rated drama to successfully defend its crown since 2010, when Shutter Island held twice on its way to $ 128 million. Warner Bros’ Annabelle, which opened to a nearly-as-impressive $ 37.1 million, will likely see a steeper drop-off as horror movies tend to be front-loaded. The Conjuring spinoff is on a trajectory of $ 15M-$ 17M for this frame.
What Gone Girl will face at the top of the heap, though, has analysts again conflicted as tracking runs the gamut. Like last week, horror appears to have the Friday night edge over the major newcomers as Universal and Legendary’s Dracula Untold is running a nip-and-tuck race with Gone Girl as Fandango’s leading ticket sellers. Bowing on 2,885 screens, the $ 70 million Dracula is on track for a bow in the low $ 20Ms. With a PG-13 rating, it will appeal to teens who couldn’t make it into the R-rated Annabelle.
If there’s a wild card among the new arrivals, it’s Alexander And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day. An adaptation of Judith Viorst’s 1972 novel, Alexander stars Steve Carrell, Jennifer Garner and Ed Oxenbould. Like The Boxtrolls, Alexander should feed the appetite of young moviegoers whose demographic has been oddly lacking choices of late. Alexander’s range should be on par to the bows of such family titles this year as Dolphin Tale 2, Boxtrolls and Muppets Most Wanted, all of which opened to $ 15M-$ 17M million each. With a budget of $ 27 million and the the powerful multiplier of kid matinee audiences, Alexander could be a dark horse.
As counter-programming, Lionsgate and CodeBlack offer Addicted, a low-budget thriller about extramarital affairs that has marketed largely to black audiences and is eyeing a debut of about $ 9M.
