2ND UPDATE, 12NOON: According to matinees, Warner Bros.’ Suicide Squad is on course to secure $19M-$20M in its third weekend, -55%. That will take Suicide Squad past $260M by Sunday, +17% over Guardians of the Galaxy‘s running cume at the same point in time. If Sony/Annapurna’s Sausage Party is going to upset it, it’s going to take a pretty hefty Friday, but as of right now the R-rated animated feature will cook $17M, -50% in second for a 10-day take of $67M.
Out of the new stuff, as expected, Ben-Hur‘s wheels are coming off with $10M-$12M for the weekend after a $3M-$3.5M Friday (including $900K Thursday night). That’s according to industry estimates. The Paramount/MGM production cost around $100M. Warner Bros.’ War Dogs action comedy is looking at $14M-$15M after $5M today (that includes last night’s $1.25M), while Focus Features/Laika’s Kubo and the Two Strings will sing $4.5M today and could nudge War Dogs for the No. 3 weekend spot with $14M-$15M. I’m told it boils down to how strong Kubo‘s grosses come in tonight. In its second go-round, Disney’s Pete’s Dragon is expected to come in between $10M-$11M for a 10-day take of $41M-$42M.
1st UPDATE, 7:30AM: School and the closing of the 2016 Rio Olympics. These are really the two most important things on people’s minds this weekend, so don’t expect much from the box office.
As three wide entries enter the fray — Paramount/MGM’s Ben-Hur, Warner Bros’ Todd Phillips action comedy War Dogs and Focus Features/Laika’s Kubo And The Two Strings — Warner’s Suicide Squad and Sony/Annapurna’s Sausage Party are expected to rule supreme in the top two spots with $20 million and $18.8M, respectively. Last night, both titles were at each other’s throats with Suicide Squad having a slight upper hand with $3.57M ($241.6M two-week cume) and Sausage Party taking $3M (First week’s haul: $50M).
Paramount
Meanwhile, War Dogs minted $1.25M from preview shows that started at 7 PM, Ben-Hur took in $900K, while the animated Kubo And The Two Strings strummed $515K at 2,100 theaters.
With War Dogs, which is settling for a middling 60% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Phillips departs from his broad/gross-out high jinks of The Hangover for a smart comedy based on true-life events about middle-men arms dealers during the Iraq War era. As such, War Dogs preview cash is about 60% less than the $3.1M racked up by The Hangover III in its first Wednesday night, and it’s little more than half of the $2.3M that Paramount’s The Big Short made in its first wide release day on December 23.
Among August testosterone comps, some analysts are likening War Dogs’ trajectory to Expendables 3, which posted $875K on its Thursday preview and wound up with a $16.6M opening. War Dogs carries a production cost in the mid-$40M range and an estimated domestic P&A of $40M. It is expected to file an opening in the $12M-$15M range.
Ben-Hur‘s Thursday beats the $800K made by Lionsgate’s Gods Of Egypt and the $452K made by Sony’s Risen on their preview nights earlier this year. Gods Of Egypt, a $140M bomb that essentially contributed to the demise of the sword-and-sandal genre, debuted to $14M and finaled at $31M stateside. Risen was cheaper at $20M, but wasn’t a cash cow with a $11.8M FSS and near $37M domestic B.O. Ben-Hur pales next to the preview nights of Paramount’s 2014 Noah ($1.6M) and 20th Century Fox’s Exodus: Gods And Kings ($1.2M). Directed by Wanted‘s Timur Bekmambetov, Ben-Hur currently has the worst reviews of the three wide releases at 29% rotten. Many expect it to finish between $10M-$13M for the weekend, with MGM footing a majority of the chariot race film’s $100M production cost.
The last Laika movie The Boxtrolls was a September release two years and didn’t hold any and made $270K in previews for a $17.3M FSS. While Kubo is likely skewing older, last night’s ticket sales bested Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue which made $450K on its way to a $17.5M weekend. Industry estimates have Kubo plucking $13M-$14M, which on the high-end is where Laika’s ParaNorman opened to August 2012. Pic turned around a 4x multiple for $56M. Laika is historically a shoo-in at the Oscars as a Best Animated Feature nominee. At 95% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Kubo has the best reviews among this weekend’s crop.
