Update, 10:22PM Friday: Before 2017 rings in, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is expected to kick Captain America: Civil War ($408M) to third place, thus becoming the second highest-grossing film of 2016 after Finding Dory ($486.3M), with an estimated cume of $410.3M; a B.O. feat accomplished in 16 days.
Disney
By Monday, Rogue One‘s cume should stand at $442M through 18 days, and to give you an idea of how the film would be pacing at that point in the time, it will be 11% ahead of The Dark Knight ($400M, first cycle domestic $533.3M) and 13% behind Jurassic World ($506.9M, final domestic $652.2M). Granted, they played during the summer, however, given the big numbers here, they’re decent comps indicating a final cume for Rogue One between $500M and $6o0M. Last year, The Force Awakens rode No. 1 for four weekends and was unseated by Ride Along 2 during Martin Luther King weekend.
Social media monitor RelishMix reports that hashtags for #RogueOne and #StarWars saw a significant spike with the news of Carrie Fisher’s death on Dec 27th to 83K-plus including #CarrieFisher and #PrincesLeia. Exit social posts for Rogue One have clearly overshadowed other holiday films.
Like last weekend, it’s another two picture holiday with Rogue One grossing an estimated $65.4M over four-days, -32% and Illumination/Universal’s Sing humming a fantastic $57.7M, +5% over the same period a week ago. While business will largely be off for the top 10 films on New Year’s Eve versus Friday, it’s not expected to be as severe as Christmas Eve. Most pics in the top 10 should see a daily decline of -15% and -25% while some will even see spikes.
Paramount Pictures
On the other side of the B.O. spectrum, award titles La La Land and Fences are crossing over with limited specialty titles also seeing robust results, meaning upscale adult audiences are out in full force. La La Land will become the top grossing limited release (in under 1,000 theaters) of the year with north of $31M while Fences by the end of the weekend with an estimated $32.3M cume will come close to the results (or beat) other award-contending play adaptations for the screen, i.e. Doubt ($33M), Closer ($33M), and Frost Nixon ($18M) (A Few Good Men remains the highest grossing play adaptation of all-time with $141.3M).
A24
On a limited basis, Fox/Chernin’s Hidden Figures will post the top four-day theater average of the weekend with close to $48K (91% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes), while Annapurna/A24’s 20th Century Women will post the second best with $40,3K (93% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes). Paramount’s Silence (89% certified fresh) should slot third with close to $25K while CBS/Lionsgate’s Patriots Day (78% certified fresh, A CinemaScore) will follow with $24K. All of these movies bust out wide in January with Hidden Figures (we hear at least $20M its opening) and Focus Features’ A Monster Calls next weekend. Silence, Patriots Day and Warner Bros.’ Live By Night will widen on MLK weekend. Live by Night and A Monster Calls are currently getting crushed on the arthouse scene due to the heavy competition with respective four-day PTAs of $10K and $7K. Out of all these titles, Live by Night has the worst reviews at 35% Rotten from 34 reviews.
Columbia Pictures
Then there’s Sony/Village Roadshow/LStar’s Passengers which is holding on to third with all its might with a running cume by the end of the weekend of $64.4M. Foreign results for several movies have been delayed during the week, and it’s arguably too early to say if this is a dud on a global basis. The same can be said about New Regency/Fox’s Assassin’s Creed even though it’s DOA stateside with an estimated $40.6M by Monday. Most video game films triumph abroad, and Fox International has a strong track record of turning U.S. turds into blossoms overseas. On the upside, Passengers has a China release date. When Avatar was in release, by this point in time through New Year’s weekend, the other big non-family tentpole Sherlock Holmes had already made $138.7M. By comparison, Passengers is obviously behind. We hear Sony has a 30% exposure on the film, while one financial analyst tells us that $400M worldwide theatrical would be the breakeven number for this movie after a $110M production cost and global $150M P&A. Reports Relish Mix: “#PassengersMovie conversation, although lighter next to other titles, is swirling almost entirely around the romantic storyline in space and the on-screen chemistry of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. On social, especially on Facebook, fans are calling out the critics for their harsh reviews.”
Top grossing titles for the weekend of Dec. 30, 2016-Jan. 2, 2017 per industry estimates as of Friday night:
1.) Rogue One (DIS), 4,157 theaters (0)/$18.1M Fri. (-21%) / 3-day cume: $50.6M (-21%)/4-day:$65.4M /Total: $442M/Wk 3
2.) Sing (UNI), 4,029 theaters (+7) /$16.9M Fri. (+30%) / 3-day cume: $43.7M (+24%)/4-day:$57.7M /Total: $180.6M/Wk 2
3.) Passengers (SONY/VR), 3,478 theaters (0) /$5.6M Fri (+25%) /3-day: $15.2M (+1%)/4-day: $19.2M/Total: $64.4M/Wk 2
4.) Moana (DIS), 2,775 Theaters (+88) / $4.2M (+44%) Fri. /3-day: $10.6M (+38%)/4-day: $14.1M/Total: $213.1M/Wk 6
5.) Fences (PAR) 2,301 theaters (+68) /$3.5M (+13500%) Fri/3-day:$10.1M (+53%)/4-day: $12.7M/Total:$32.3M/Wk 3
6.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 750 (+16) /$3.1M Fri (+210%) /3-day:$9.1M (+60%)/4-day:$11.6M/Total: $36.4M/ Wk 4
7.) Why Him? (FOX), 3,008 theaters (+91) /$3.3M Fri (-15%) / 3-day:$8.8M (-20%)/4-day:$11.3M/Total: $35.9M/Wk 2
8.) Assassin’s Creed (FOX), 2,996 theaters (+26) /$3M Fri. (-20%)/3-day:$7.5M (-27%)/4-day:$9.5M/Total: $40.6M/Wk 2
9).Manchester by the Sea (RSA/AMZ) 1,206 theaters (-7)/$1.23M (+35%) Fri /3-day: $4M (+46%)/4-day: $5.2M/Total: $29.4M/Wk 7
10.) Collateral Beauty (WB/NL), 2,745 theaters (-283) /$1.36M Fri. (+10%) /3-day:$3.7M (-12%)/4-day:$4.7M/Total: $26.4M/Wk 3
Notables:
20th Century Fox
Hidden Figures (Fox/Chernin) 25 theaters/$275K Fri/3-day: $910K/4-day PTA: $48K/4-day: $1.1M/Total: $2.7M
Patriot’s Day (CBS/LG), 7 theaters /$46k Fri (-13%)/3-day: $130K (-19%)/4-day PTA: $23,7K/4-day: $166K/Total: $647k/Wk 2
20th Century Women (AP/A24) 4 theaters/$40K Fri/3-day: $126K/4-day PTA: $40,3k/4-day:$161k/Total: $229K/Wk 1
Silence (PAR), 4 theaters /$29k Fri. (-55%) /3-day:$79K (-40%)/4-day PTA: $25K/4-day:$100K/Total: $327K/ Wk 2
Julieta (SPC), 4 theaters /$15k Fri. (-18%) /3-day:$39k/4-day PTA: $16,5K/4-day:$49k/Total: $200K/ Wk 2
Live by Night (WB), 4 theaters /$11k Fri. /3-day:$31k/4-day:$39k/Total: $114K/ Wk 2
A Monster Calls (FOC), 4 theaters /$7K Fri. (-55%)/3-day:$21K (-31%)/4-day:$27K/Total:$79K/Wk 2
UPDATE, 1:20 PM Friday: Based on early estimates from matinees today, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is on its way to becoming the year’s second highest-grossing film for Disney and Lucasfilm, on track to gross anywhere from $16.7 million- $18 million today and perhaps $46.7M-$50M for the weekend, with four-day holiday numbers pushing it even higher. With a total gross estimated now to be anywhere between $418M and $425M (some have it at $445M), it would mean Disney would take the top three 2016 box office spots, four out of the top five and six out of the top 1o. The overall box office is now at $11.24B through yesterday, easily passing 2015’s record-setting $11.13B.
Lionsgate
Musicals — both the live-action La La Land and the family-friendly Sing and Moana (which will go well beyond $200M at weekend’s end) — are doing well in matinees. Today, Lionsgate ups La La Land‘s theaters from 205 to 750 and estimates are anywhere between $8M and $9.3M for the three-day and $12M+ for the four-day for this Emma Stone, Ryan Gosling starrer. Tomorrow, should see La La Land cross $27M to become the highest-grossing limited release movie of the year in its 4th weekend of release.
Both La La Land and Moana have had strong holds during the week (and the best holds of any films from Wed. to Thurs., but it will remain a two-tier box office with Rogue One and Sing outperforming all other films in the marketplace by $20M-plus.
More to come later this evening.
—Anita Busch @DeadlineAnita
UPDATE, 7:35 AM Friday: Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story has cumed $375.4 million domestically as it heads into what is expected to be a strong New Year’s holiday weekend, only behind two other Disney films for bragging rights of top grossers of 2016: Finding Dory ($486.2M) and Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War ($408M). Rogue One should blow past $400M tomorrow, but not sure if it will topple the Captain.
Thirteen movies have crossed $200M so far this year, and Disney will have eight of them: After a successful week of play benefiting from 100% of kids being off school, Disney’s animated family film Moana bumped up the box office chart this week from No. 6 to No. 4 and will cross $200M today.
Continuing the pecking order from yesterday, Illumination/Universal’s Sing is still dominating the No. 2 spot having crossed the $100M mark Wednesday. It chalked up a nice $15M more Thursday for a total tally of $123.6M. Passengers takes the No. 3 spot after culling together $29.4M over the four-day weekend (Sony claimed $30M, but that math didn’t add up). It now sits at an estimated $45.25M after this week.
A24
The only new entry for this weekend to speak of is Annapurna/A24’s 20th Century Women, which began a limited play in New York and Los Angeles on Wednesday. Having dipped 33% from the day earlier, it cumed $27K heading into what will be a strong adult moviegoing weekend. The film, which has culled more than $67K after only two days, is on four screens.
Per screen, CBS/Lionsgate’s Patriots Day has the strongest title in limited release with $6,794…
