4TH Write-thru Saturday, 7:47AM: Chart being updated Wait until today’s matinees. That’s what many are saying about the opening weekend for 20th Century Fox/Chernin Entertainment’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children which as of this morning is seeing $9M for Friday and a revised projection of $26M over three days.
Lionsgate/Summit/Participant Media’s Deepwater Horizon looks like it has mostly everything working for it: an 81% fresh Rotten Tomatoes rating and an A- CinemaScore. However, unlike Warner Bros.’ Sully, another politically conscious film, this Mark Wahlberg action thriller about the Louisiana oil rig disaster is set to post meh numbers in relation to its cost with a $7.1M Friday and a shot at $20M. Deepwater Horizon’s gross production cost before P&A is $156M, and its net is $118M after $37.7M Louisiana tax credits. I’ve heard that Participant and Lionsgate are equal partners on the film. As is typical on Lionsgate titles, there’s a decent percentage of the cost covered by foreign sales. We’ll see by the end of tonight if any of this good word of mouth kicks in for Deepwater Horizon and takes its FSS higher.
But so far, what’s holding Deepwater Horizon back?
With 86% of its audience over 25, Deepwater Horizon is playing in a crowded marketplace for mass-appealing and critically ok’d product, especially in the wake of Sony/MGM’s Magnificent Seven ($15.6M, -55%, cume $61.5M) and Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Sully ($8.2M weekend, $105.2M domestic cume). Some think that A- CinemaScore will eventually kick in leg-wise. We’ll see. It’s split evenly between males and females with 37% of the audience coming for Wahlberg (Dylan O’Brien is in the movie too).
However, social media monitor RelishMix observes another hurdle for Deepwater Horizon despite glowing reviews and exit polls: A polarization in potential audiences. Despite having a decent-sized social media universe of 53.3M and a hard-working social star in Wahlberg (24.5M across Twitter, Facebook, Instagram), Relish Mix notices “mixed conversation” for Deepwater Horizon. Despite moviegoers who say that they’re turning out for the director or stars, the social media monitor reports, “Just like Jason Bourne and some other films this year, a political discussion is part of the conversation for Deepwater. Some are encouraging moviegoers to boycott the film for various reasons ranging from BP’s lack of responsibility to the continued use of offshore drilling. Others are touched by the portrayal of the disaster, and like materials from the preview in addition to a recent HBO behind-the-scenes special.”
Then there’s Relativity Media’s all-star comedy heist Masterminds which is nosediving with an estimated $6.4M in sixth place at 3,042 runs. CinemaScore polls gave it a B- while critics hate it at 40% rotten.
Since Miss Peregrine was a New York Times bestseller that appealed to young girls, depending on how many of them come out this afternoon will determine how high this Tim Burton title goes. As we mentioned previously, with an estimated $110M budget, it will definitely need to lean on overseas.
Why isn’t Miss Peregrine‘s opening in The Maze Runner range?
That YA film was nearly split 50/50 between men and women. Miss Peregrine is pulling in 62% females to 38% males. Under 18 bunch repped 31% while over 25 (likely Moms) turned out at 57%. Nonetheless, many remark that Burton is the quintessential director for this source material by Ransom Riggs. Ever since Fox acquired the book four years ago, they sought out Burton to direct. By early 2015, the project was fast-tracked when casting came together. 51% came out because they’re fans of the book, while 22% of the crowd cited Burton as their reason for attending.
Miss Peregrine isn’t that far from Burton’s Gothic soap opera comedy Dark Shadows both in its first weekend ($29.5M opening, $79.7M domestic, $245.5M global) and the fact that it drew older females. True, Dark Shadows had Johnny Depp working in its favor, but at the time it was considered a disappointing debut for a Burton/Depp combo. Dark Shadows earned a B- CinemaScore and grossed close to a 3x multiple at the domestic B.O. Audiences graded Miss Peregrine a B+ CinemaScore which is better, but it’s still not Alice in Wonderland (A- CinemaScore).
According to RelishMix, Miss Peregrine ran a strong social media campaign with the overall conversation being “very positive because of the beloved book.” RelishMix also noticed that Burton fans were planning to make trips to the theaters too. Total social media universe across Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and YouTube counts 87M with pic’s social media tubthumpers being Burton and star Samuel L. Jackson, who collectively total more than 16M social followers. The movie’s daily video views range in the 15-20K range, which is respectable for a fall release. Notable in the social marketing is the hashtag #StayPeculiar which has looped in a fair amount of posts on Burton’s characters in the movie. There are character introductions, BTS looks with Burton and the usual re-posting of positive reviews.
Participant Media largely invests in socially conscious projects, i.e. Lincoln, The Help. At the end of August, Deadline’s Michael Cieply detailed the irony on how Deepwater Horizon was reaping a huge Louisiana tax credit under a phased out, higher cap at a time when the state was desperately in need of funds following a flood of Biblical size. On Friday, Deadline received news that those buying Deepwater Horizon tickets on Atom Tickets will see $1 from their purchase contributed toward the Louisiana Flood Relief Fund. Wahlberg and Deepwater co-star Kate Hudson spread the news on social. Press release reads, “The convenient and socially driven movie ticketing platform will run the fundraising campaign for the duration of the film’s theatrical release or until they raise $20,000.” (Deadline reported that if the movie’s producers chose to do so, there is an option to sell their tax credits back to Louisiana at 85% of their face value, a total cash payment of $32M).
Lionsgate and Participant Media also report they’re making a large donation to the Foundation for Louisiana for immediate flood victims and are encouraging audiences to donate. Lionsgate brought the movie to New Orleans where the victims’ families and survivors of the rig disaster were in attendance along with pics talent and filmmakers. The film also premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival.
Unlike The Disappointments Room, which Relativity dumped four weeks ago, the studio put its best foot forward in regards to marketing and distributing Masterminds. While Kate Beckinsale allegedly sought to distance herself from Disappointments Room, some of the Masterminds cast were on hand to promote the comedy, that is if their busy schedules permitted it. Talent reps were prepared to free up these clients when they heard the pic was a getting a release last summer. But when Masterminds was rescheduled and swallowed into Relativity’s bankruptcy, reps had to plan out their clients’ 2016 calendar. Kristen Wiig and Owen Wilson were in production on different movies, while Zach Galifianakis was busy with his FX show. Nonetheless, all three attended last Monday’s Hollywood premiere. SNL started up for Kate McKinnon and Leslie Jones. Jones didn’t participate in promoting due to her Twitter hack, while McKinnon made time for satellite interviews and some press. Jason Sudeikis was consumed with the TIFF press tour for Colossal plus the fact that he’s prepping for the Off-Broadway run of Dead Poets Society.
On social, Relish Mix has pointed out much mayhem with Masterminds. In all fairness, Relativity chief Ryan Kavanaugh and president Dana Brunetti have promoted Masterminds on their social accounts. But RelishMix calls the comedy’s 26.6M social media universe light, not to mention the movie has a socially inactive (or rather not-activated) cast.
Says Relish Mix, “Let’s take Masterminds as the latest example of how smart the moviegoing audience is. We say this because in many of the comments, fans are asking each other, ‘Didn’t this trailer first appear about 18 months ago?’ In other words, film fanatics read posts and trades often too, and they’re aware of the fact that when a movie delays its release, it usually spells trouble. Back in July, hip-hop artist Flo Rida – with 18M Facebook fans – posted that his single ‘Zillionaire’ was in the Masterminds trailer. But, there aren’t any posts on the film’s Facebook page involving this musical artist with his millions of fans.”
Top 10 films per industry-reported estimates as of Saturday AM for the weekend of Sept. 30-Oct. 2:
1). Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children (FOX), 3,522 theaters / $9M Fri. (includes Thursday previews of $1.2M)/ 3-day cume: $26M / Wk 1
2). Deepwater Horizon (LG), 3,259 theaters / $7M Fri. (includes $860K Thursday previews) / 3-day cume: $20M / Wk 2
3). Magnificent Seven (SONY), 3,674 theaters / $4.6M Fri. (-64%) / 3-day cume: $15.6M (-55%)/Total cume: $61.5M/ Wk 2
4). Storks (WB), 3,922 theaters / $3.2M Fri. (-45%) /3-day cume: $14M (-34%) /Total: $39M/ Wk 2
5). Sully (WB), 3,717 theaters (-238)/ $2.5M Fri. (-40%)/ 3-day cume: $8.2M (-39%)/Total: $105.2M / Wk 4
6). Masterminds (REL), 3,042 theaters / $2.3M Fri. (includes $265K previews)/ 3-day cume: $6.4M / Wk 1
7). Don’t Breathe (SONY), 1,653 theaters (-785) / $670K Fri. (-39%) / 3-day cume: $2.3M (-39%)/ Total cume: $84.7M / Wk 6
8). Bridget Jones’s Baby (UNI), 2,055 theaters (-875) / $712K Fri. (-52%)/ 3-day cume: $2.2M (-49%)/Total Cume:$20.9M/ Wk 3
9). Queen of Katwe (DIS), 1,242 theaters (+1190) / $706K Fri. (+7802%)/ 3-day cume: $2.1M (+6072%) / Total cume: $2.58M /…
