3rd Update, Friday 10:46 PM: A year after they rattled the box office annals with Deadpool, 20th Century Fox is proving once again that there’s moola in R-rated Marvel movies with the final Wolverine title, Logan. The Hugh Jackman-tentpole is set to record the biggest opening day for an R-rated movie in March with an estimated $32M (including Thursday’s $9.5M) and if that figure holds into Saturday morning, it will be the third best opening day overall for the rating after Deadpool ($47.3M) and The Matrix Reloaded ($37.5M). Prior to Logan‘s March record, Warner Bros’ 300 owned the top first day in March for a R-rated movie with $28.1M.
20th Century Fox
Among opening days for superhero movies, Logan is 7% off the $34.4M earned by 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine, the first movie in the spinoff trilogy.
All of this puts Logan on track for a $79.8M opening at 4,071 theaters. Not only is that the widest release ever for an R-rated pic, but it’s the top opening for the restricted rating in March. Other records: it’s the second best for the Wolverine franchise after 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($85M), and the seventh best three-day debut for an R-rated movie. Some trackers believe the tenth X-Men movie could scratch $80M, but a lot of that has to do with Saturday night. Currently estimates show Logan being frontloaded. Logan cost just under $100M before P&A, and it’s forecasted to make another $100M overseas this weekend (sans Japan).
At a time when studios have no choice but to plunge the depths of their comic-book superhero universes and gamble on frosh characters, while desperately trying to reboot icons like Batman and Spider-Man, Fox is taking a cue from last year’s Deadpool. Let’s face it, the Pico Blvd. studio has seen the light and knows that fanboys (who just get older) are tiring from PG-13 comic-book tropes where there’s always a big noisy battle to save the world at the expense of leveling a metropolis (how many times have we seen that?). With Logan, Fox has delivered a gritty, blood-dripping, Dirty Harry-like, raw X-Men movie that jives more with the canon’s sensibility than its previous mutant teenage angst-in-tights titles.
Recently, a Fandango poll reported that out of 1,000 moviegoers, 71% contend that more superhero movies should be rated R, while 86% were interested in seeing a more violent, R-rated X-Men movie.
Logan gets an A- CinemaScore which when coupled with its critical reviews, spells for a fantastic future as March will become even more crowded with tentpole titles, i.e. Kong Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, aiming to capitalize on kids’ spring breaks.
Fox knew they had something special with Logan and showed off the first 30 42 minutes at a product reel back in December. They also screened the movie to the L.A. press 16 days before its opening, and that helped turn up the pic’s heat on Rotten Tomatoes with a 94% certified fresh rating.
Universal
Even with Logan dragging the majority of moviegoers into the theater, Universal/Blumhouse’s Get Out is thriving with a second weekend of $26.6M, -20%. That’s an amazing hold for a horror movie in its second weekend considering they typically drop on average -60%. There are exceptions like Scream and Paranormal Activity, but those films were largely platformed and an apples-to-oranges comparison in this case. Get Out‘s second weekend ease is even better than Split‘s second weekend decline (-36%). Running total by Sunday will stand at $76.4M. Why are these numbers so awesome? It’s more than a horror film say rivals; it’s a movie like Hidden Figures that takes on another, cathartic meaning in these off-kilter Trump times. And more than that — the movie is hysterical and a hell-of-a-fun ride.
Lionsgate
Lionsgate/Summit’s The Shack is looking very strong for a faith-based movie drawing $5.7M today, and $16.5M for the weekend at 2,888 theaters in third. That’s a higher debut than last year’s Lenten releases Risen ($11.8M opening) and Miracles From Heaven ($14.8M FSS), and tonight it lands an A CinemaScore. Miracles From Heaven earned one of the rare studio A+s last year and saw a 4X multiple with a domestic end cume of $61M. Shack enters the spring marketplace on fire, so it’s bound to see a similar type of trajectory.
The Shack was first published in 2007 and sold over 20M copies. The movie which stars Sam Worthington, Octavia Spencer and Tim McGraw, and follows Mack Phillips (Worthington), a family man who has lost his youngest daughter to a serial killer. He receives a mysterious note, which he figures is from God, inviting him to a shack.
Lionsgate launched a multi-prong campaign canvassing faith, family, Hispanic and African American crowds, as well as a direct outreach to book and music fans. The faith campaign began about a year ago with a curated Faith influencer word-of-mouth screening program that reached 4K+ pastors, bishops, lay leaders, non-profit executives and business leaders. There was also a national partnership with Cru, the largest Christian Ministry, which reaches over 40K college and high school students on 1,600 campuses. In addition there was a 30-minute special airing on Christian Broadcasting Network, along with a “Making of” special on the Trinity Broadcasting Network.
Lionsgate also hosted a word-of-mouth screening program for influencer athletes, including Tim Tebow, Kurt Warner, Jennie Finch and Dara Torres, all of whom posted their reactions to their respective social media platforms. With the film coming out, the book has popped back up to No. 1 on Barnes and Noble’s Fiction Best Sellers. It’s also No. 3 on USA Today’s best-selling books. And it continues to ascend the New York Times Bestseller list, moving up one slot on Trade Paperback Fiction (Now #3) and Combined Print and E-Book Fiction (Now #4). On Apple, The Shack is now No. 1 (was No. 3) on the Top Paid Fiction & Literature Books and #2 on Top Paid Books (Was #5).
The Shack soundtrack dropped on Feb. 24 featuring tunes from a plethora of country’s top artists including McGraw, Faith Hill, Lady Antebellum, Dierks Bentley, Brett Eldredge and Christian rock band, Skillet, among many others.
Open Road’s Before I Fall, which premiered at the Sundance Film Festival, is currently estimated to post $1.5M for Friday and $4.1M for the weekend at 2,346. The movie carries a $5M production cost before P&A. When you’re looking to pull in a teenage girl demo, having an original movie that’s not a horror movie, and not based on a bestselling novel is like rolling a rock up a hill. We saw that with The Edge of Seventeen (died with a $4.75M opening), though we can blame that on the film sharing the same weekend as Fantastic Beasts, as well as The Space Between Us ($3.7M opening, $7.9M). Even when you have an established piece of source material for young women, you have to make sure it’s going to strike a nerve and stoke the fanbase. For example, The 5th Wave, a popular YA novel should have been a hit, but couldn’t make a splash last winter with $10.3M opening, and $34.9M final domestic cume. The biggest sting here is that Before I Fall is the third dud for Open Road in 2017 after Sleepless ($30M production cost, $20.7M domestic B.O.) and last weekend’s Collide (they have a distribution fee on that one, but it’s only grossed $2.2M). Before I Fall gets a B CinemaScore and a middling response from critics with 68% fresh. They’ve slapped the movie as a mopey version of Groundhog Day.
A24
Hidden Figures may have lost at the Oscars, but at the box office, its beating Oscar’s big winners La La Land and Moonlight. The femme NASA scientists pic looks to make an estimated $3.88M, with a great -33% hold in its 11th weekend, for a running cume of $158.7M. Lionsgate/Summit’s six Oscar winner La La Land should come in 10th with $3.06M, -33% for a running cume by Sunday of $145.8M. Oscar’s best picture winner Moonlight from A24 is grossing $624K from more than 1,564 venues tonight for an estimated $2.2M 20th weekend take. Total running cume for the Barry Jenkins-directed movie should be $25M by Sunday. Like the best picture predecessors before it, last year’s Spotlight and 2015’s Birdman, Moonlight is already available in the home entertainment window. However, its projected post-Oscar weekend will outstrip those two titles’ respective post-Oscar weekend takes of $1.77M and $1.9M.
Stay tuned for tonight’s chart….
For the weekend of March 3-5 based on Friday night industry averages:
1.) Logan(Fox), 4,071 theaters / $32M Fri. (includes $9.5M in previews) / 3-day: $79.8M /Wk 1
2.) Get Out (UNI), 2,938 theaters (+157) / $7.9M Fri. (-%) / 3-day: $26.6M (-27%)/Total: $76.4/Wk 2
3.) The Shack (LG), 2,888 theaters / $5.7M Fri. (includes $850k in previews) / 3-day: $16.5M /Wk 1
4). The LEGO Batman Movie (WB), 3,656 theaters (-401) / $2.6M Fri. (-38%) / 3-day: $11.9M (-38%) / Total: $148.8M/Wk 4
5.) John Wick: Chapter 2(LGF), 2,475 theaters (-479) / $1.3M Fri. (-46%) / 3-day: $4.8M (-48%) / Total:$82.9M / Wk 4
6.) Before I Fall (OR), 2,346 theaters / $1.5M Fri. (includes $850k in previews) / 3-day: $4.1M /Wk 1
7.) Hidden Figures (FOX), 1,582 theaters (-440) / $1.09M Fri. (-31%) / 3-day: $3.88M (-33%) / Total: $158.7M / Wk 11
8.) The Great Wall(UNI/LEG), 2,314 theaters (-1,014) / $913K Fri. (-62%) / 3-day: $3.78M (-58%) / Total: $41.5M / Wk 3
9.) Fifty Shades Darker(UNI), 2,205 theaters (-1,011) / $1.1M Fri. (-58%) / 3-day: $3.39M (-56%) / Total: $109.8 / Wk 4
10.) La La Land (LGF), 1,411 theaters (-322) / $809K Fri (-33%) / 3-day: $3.06M (-33%) / Total: $145.8M / Wk 13
NOTABLES:
Moonlight (A24), tkk theaters (-x) /…
