Is Controversy Impacting ‘A Dog’s Purpose’ At The Box

3RD Update, Friday 10:15 PM: Refresh for chart We had a feeling yesterday about how this weekend would go down. Given its great weekday momentum, it was likely that Uni/Blumhouse’s Split would hold on to No. 1 with an estimated $24.8M while the embattled Amblin/Walden Media’s A Dog’s Purpose also from Uni would settle for second with $17.8M–$18.2M.

Truly, among those in distribution, there’s a division as to whether the box office for A Dog’s Purpose was dinged from the fallout of the TMZ video showing a German Shepherd being forced to perform against his will in artificial rapids. Some argue that such controversies do not weigh on moviegoers’ minds and dictate their ticket-buying habits.  Certain tracking services saw A Dog’s Purpose opening as high as $27M four weeks ago, and now the pic looks to be coming in (based off Friday night ticket sales) just under $20M. Some attribute that slowdown to the controversy, while others point to big films like Lego Batman and Fifty Shades Darker coming onto tracking (which can dilute other films’ projections and polling responses).

But before PETA can claim any victory in regards to impacting a movie’s ticket sales this weekend, we need to take a breath, consider a few things, and realize that A Dog’s Purpose‘s opening is still doggone good.

Well, how’s that?

Because A Dog’s Purpose is bound to be the eighth-best opening of all-time for a dog movie (maybe seventh), ranking after a slew of popular branded or star-studded dog titles from Disney, Fox and Warner Bros. A Dog’s Purpose ranks below such titles like Warner Bros.’ Scooby-Doo ($54.1M) and 20th Century Fox’s Marley and Me ($36.4M), but above Disney’s Snow Dogs ($17.8M), Paramouont’s Hotel for Dogs ($17m) and Disney’s 2006 reboot of The Shaggy Dog ($16.3M). A Dog’s Purpose is a Saturday matinee movie, not a Friday night one, so tomorrow’s ticket sales for the Lasse Hallstrom-directed movie could tell a better story.

When I first heard that the projections for A Dog’s Purpose were north of $20M, I found it quite unbelievable, particularly for a film which was built at a low cost ($22M before P&A) for the flyover state crowd. A dog movie? “Yeah, a dog movie. They always make money,” one non-Uni distribution source told me. Max, another goody goody low budget family canine film opened to $12.1M two summers ago, so how could A Dog’s Purpose do more business? For one, A Dog’s Purpose is based off a New York Times bestseller by W. Bruce Cameron and it stayed on the newspaper’s list for 49 weeks. It deals with the idea of reincarnation, so right there that established IP was able to spike total awareness to 80% on NRG and led some to predict a $20M-plus opening.

Still, bestseller aside, it stood to reason that A Dog’s Purpose would slot a high-teen opening. It was arriving in the wake of a crowded holiday marketplace, one that’s recently dominated by a fresh M. Night Shyamalan title that’s been performing strongly throughout the week (Split by Sunday should be at $76.5M). It only made sense for Split‘s momentum to carryover, not to mention Shyamalan’s titles have proven to beat the genre film curse of the steep second weekend drop and this one is looking to dip an amazing 38%.

Furthermore, A Dog’s Purpose didn’t star Jennifer Aniston like Marley & Me, nor was it based on a popular cartoon like 101 Dalmatians or Scooby-Doo, nor did it have the dazzle in its materials ala a Disney’s Beverly Hills Chihuahua. That 2008 movie was promoted months in advance, was sold very heavily on its comedy and was topped off with a catchy film trailer ditty “Aye! Chihuahua!”. A Dog’s Purpose was different, more tame, straight-up family and more in sync with movies like Hotel for Dogs and Max in its sell. And because of the vicinity where A Dog’s Purpose is opening to at the B.O.; it’s for this reason why we can’t say yet that controversy killed it.

A Dog’s Purpose gets an A CinemaScore tonight, which is in line with other Fido films like Eight Below, Beverly Hills Chihuahua and Marley & Me (all A CinemaScores) and is better than Hotel for Dogs (A-) and Snow Dogs (A-).

If controversy truly kills A Dog’s Purpose, then we’ll see it next week, because canine titles have long legs, read 2006’s Eight Below ($20.1M opening, $81.6M, 4x) and 2009’s Hotel for Dogs ($17M, $73M final domestic, 4.3x).  A Dog’s Purpose brought in mostly older women tonight at 66% females, 61% over 25, with 73% saying they bought tickets because of the subject matter.

Sony/Screen Gems has Resident Evil: The Final Chapter in the mix. Its weekend looked promising last night with a $1M Thursday night start. But that’s where the fandom ends as most audiences are going to sit this one out for the next two days. Current weekend projections for the sixth movie lie between $11.9M-$12.6M, well below the mid teens the studio was hoping for, and on its way to be the lowest domestic opening for the 15-year old franchise based off the Capcom game. For Sony, it was always about rallying the foreign audiences with this sequel. They’re already celebrating that the franchise is crossing $1 billion worldwide. Considering that these movies make 80% or more of their global haul abroad should mean that this $40M production (before P&A) will be OK. It already has cashed in $35M from Japan and Sony is projecting a $70M worldwide running cume by Sunday. Final Chapter gets a B CinemaScore tonight, on par with its 2002 title and 2004 sequel, and better than the C+ it earned with its previous installment, Retribution in 2012. Maybe the movie should have been PG-13 instead of R…because the under 18 crowd loved it with an A+, but only 9% of them were able to buy tickets. Crowd here was comprised of 60% males, 70% over 25. Thirty-four percent bought tickets for Milla Jovovich, while 49% said it was because it was a Resident Evil movie. Still, all this low-budget, tired catalog titles aside, we’re still waiting for the Culver City lot to shake up the box office in the Spider-Man sense of the word. Will it be with Ryan Reynolds’ sci-fi thriller Life on March 24?

Weinstein Co.’s Gold is anything but that at the box office, set to rank 10th with an estimated $3.3M-$3.6M at 2,166 theaters. Like The Founder last weekend, the Matthew McConaughey movie suffers from a lack of awards mojo. Though Founder earned great reviews, critics threw Gold out the window with a 38% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Audiences aren’t any kinder giving it a B-. It’s too bad because it’s a fun movie, and might have found an audience during the summer as specialty counter-programming. Old men bought tickets here at 59% males, 54% over 50. Fifty-four percent bought tickets because they’re McConaughey fans.

TWC is faring better with its six-Oscar nominated Lion which saw an estimated 27% hike in its weekend take with $2.2M and a near $20M running total in its 10th weekend at 575 runs. Also, Founder is holding well, projected to be -29%.

Two best picture Oscar nominees will cross $100M this weekend: 20th Century Fox’s Hidden Figures and Lionsgate/Summit’s La La Land. 

Box office for weekend of Jan. 27-29 based off Friday night estimates:

1.) Split (UNI/Blumhouse) 3,199 theaters (+161)  /$7.5M Fri (-49%) /3-day: $24.8M (-38%)/Total: $76.5M/Wk 2

2.) A Dog’s Purpose(UNI/Amblin/Walden) 3,059 theaters   /$5M Fri /3-day: $17.8M-$18.2m/Wk 1

3.) Hidden Figures (Fox) 3,351 theaters (-65)/$3.7M Fri (-14%)  /3-day: $13.8M(-12%)/Total: $103.8M/Wk 6<

4.) Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (SONY) 3,104 theaters  /$4.85M Fri /3-day: $11.9m-$12.6m/Wk 1

5.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 3,136 (+1,271) /$3.2M Fri (+32%)/3-day:$10.6M-$11.5m (+36%)/Total:$105.9M/ Wk 8

6.) xXx: The Return Xander Cage (PAR/REV) 3,651 theaters  /$2.1M Fri (-70%) /3-day: $7.1M (-65%)/Total: $32.3M/ Wk 2

7.) Sing (ILL/UNI), 2,702 theaters (-491) /$1.3M Fri.(-26%)  /3-day cume: $6.5M (-28%)/Total: $257.6M/Wk 6

8.) Rogue One  (DIS), 2,049 theaters  (-554)/$1.26M Fri. (-28%)/ 3-day cume: $5.4M (-25%)/Total: $520.3M/Wk 7

9.) Monster Trucks (PAR) 2,496 theaters (-623)/ $784K Fri. (-44%)/ 3-day: $4M (-43%)/ Total:$28.1M / Wk 3

10.) Gold (TWC) 2,166 theaters   /$1.1M-$1.2M Fri /3-day: $3.3M-$3.6M/Wk 1

Notables:

The Founder (TWC) 1,115 theaters  /$663K Fri (-34%) /3-day: $2.4M (-29%) /Total: $7.2M/Wk 2

Lion (TWC) 575 theaters  (0) /$578K Fri (+25%) /3-day: $2.2M (+27%)/Total: $19.6M/Wk 10

Manchester by the Sea (AMZ/RSA) 1,168 theaters  (+625) /$537K Fri (+120%) /3-day: $2.1M (+120%)/Total: $41.6M/Wk 11

 Fences (Par) 880 theaters (+187)/$370 Fri (+10%)  /3-day: $1.3M (+13%)/Total: $50.8M/Wk 7

Moonlight (A24) 1,104 theaters  (+615) /$356K Fri (+120%) /3-day: $1.26M (+114%)/Total: $17.5M/Wk 15

Arrival (Par) 1,221 theaters (+1,041)/$367k Fri (+325%)  /3-day: $1.2M (+288%)/Total: $97.1M/Wk 12

Hacksaw Ridge (LG) 502 theaters (+377)/$102k Fri (+375%)  /3-day: $369k (+372%)/Total: $65.9M/Wk 13

The Salesman  (CMG), 3 theaters  /$20K Fri. /PTA: $21k/3-day:$62K / Wk 1

2ND UPDATE, Friday noon: Universal/Blumhouse’s Split isn’t going anywhere. It’s currently expected to stay in the No. 1 spot per industry matinees with a $7 million-plus Friday and a second weekend between $22M-$24M. On the high end, by Sunday, that will take the M. Night Shyamalan movie’s cume to $75.7M. Overall, that’s a 43% decline, which is not only remarkable for a genre film but bests the 55% of the director’s previous Uni/Blumhouse title The Visit. As we mentioned last weekend, Shyamalan has a loyal fanbase that can be counted upon theatrically.

High five here for actor…

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