3rd Update, Friday 9:06PM: Doctor Strange is casting a spell over the masses who are now shelling out an estimated $82M to check out Marvel’s medic at 3,882 theaters with today alone grossing in the $32M-$33M range. In regards to its opening day, Doctor Strange whips Marvel’s previous November live action title Thor: The Dark World ($31.89M Friday), however, as of right now it’s behind the hammer-holder’s $85.7M FSS. That said Doctor Strange‘s A CinemaScore is quite promising, so its ticket sales are bound to get higher. Just look at how the superhero’s projections swelled in the last nine hours. One last minute set of estimates that came in tonight even thinks Doctor Strange could potentially hit $88M. TBD.
Similar to Spectre last year with 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie, Doctor Strange isn’t crushing DreamWorks Animation’s family offering Trolls which is looking at an opening day of $12M with a FSS of $42.4M. Trolls gets an A CinemaScore tonight which means it should have a longer run than previous DWA November titles Bee Movie ($38M) and Megamind ($46M). Those pics respectively received CinemaScore grades of B+ and A- and final domestic multiples of 3.2x and 3.3x.
In third, it’s Lionsgate/Summit’s Hacksaw Ridge with an estimated $14.7M, after a $5.1M Friday. That opening is $300K shy of the debut of Mel Gibson’s previous theatrical directorial, Apocalypto, which opened to No. 1 with $15M. Rivals told me today that Hacksaw‘s opening isn’t so bad for this $40M R-rated World War II drama (it’s above the $12M FSS Lionsgate was forecasting), in fact, it’s fine. Many were expecting some red state-Bible belt impact on Hacksaw Ridge‘s tickets sales ala Unbroken. It’s not, and we dive into that explanation further down. Those who showed up to Hacksaw Ridge gave it an A, which adds to Mel Gibson’s growing list of great grades as a director: Passion of the Christ (A+), Braveheart (A-), The Man Without a Face (A). Couple Hacksaw‘s good word of mouth with its excellent certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score of 87% and that’s reason enough why exhibitors should continue to hold this movie on screens in the weeks to come. Too often many adult-skewing sleepers in this day and age are pulled off screen as exhibitors fall for titles which have no hope of lasting in the theater for more than two weeks. Especially at this time of year with a slew of awards contenders competing for marquee space, theater owners should think twice as these critically acclaimed movies have much to offer dollar wise in the long run.
By late August, it was obvious that moviegoers were excited by the good Doctor. RelishMix noticed back then that online trailers were being passed around at a rate of 46 to 1 (mindblowing considering the average tentpole trailer goes viral at a rate of 10 to 1 on social. Heading into its opening week, the viral rate on Doctor Strange settled to 20:1 which is still strong with its most viewed trailer on YouTube being the second one that dropped in July, now clocking close to 22M views. Even though most of the pic’s cast isn’t socially activated, Doctor Strange is bolstered by Marvel and Disney pages pushing the film’s social media universe to a whopping 311.5M. One recent social media highlight was Jimmy Kimmel hiring the superhero M.D. to quell a screaming batch of kids at a birthday party. It has 2.9M views:
In its Doctor Strange marketing, Disney went after tech geeks and fanboys, focusing on 3D visuals, premium formats and the visual spectacle of the film with special screenings, creative messaging, brand partnerships and events including the “Expand Your Mind” one which featured 15 minutes of exclusive footage shown on IMAX in 118+ theaters nationwide. Marvel executed a similar type of IMAX preview prior to Guardians of the Galaxy and that led that deeper universe property to an unexpected $94.3M opening. There were technology partnerships and activations celebrating Doctor Strange in the culture including Twitter stickers, GIPHY content, Facebook Live, Snapchat lense and filters, Tumblr stunt, and Instagram special content. Of note, there was a Microsoft Surface promotional sponsorship highlighting the use of the device in the filmmaking process. There was also a Google Tilt Brush app featuring a “Mixed Reality” stunt with artists across LA, London and Hong Kong, inspired by different dimensions in Doctor Strange and recreating the worlds in VR for an immersive visual experience. More power for Doctor Strange‘s profile this weekend: Cumberbatch is hosting Saturday Night Live.
Scott Derrickson revealed on Twitter in June 2014 that he was attached to direct Doctor Strange based on Stan Lee and Steve Ditko’s neurosurgeon character. Tom Hardy and Benedict Cumberbatch’s names were immediately in the mix for the lead along with Jared Leto. By Comic-Con 2014, it seemed like Joaquin Phoenix was in serious talks, however, by October there was no deal. By the end of the year, Cumberbatch became a lock. But once again this weekend, Marvel beats D.C. with both the critics and audience groundswell. Many in town attribute this to Marvel president Kevin Feige who knows what clicks when it comes to the brand and its fans (“He knows what works and what doesn’t work. ‘We do this, but we don’t do that’” shared one studio marketing chief briefly on Feige’s process).
Mel Gibson, center, interviews Desmond Doss Jr., the son of Congressional Medal of Honor recipient Desmond Doss, at a screening of Hacksaw Ridge at The National WWII Museum, in New Orleans.
Shutterstock
After MGM/Paramount’s Ben-Hur died on its sword back in August, faith-based marketers obsessed to us how the sword and sandal movie missed the mark in spreading the good word to the faithful; that if there was a movie who was getting it right in its faith-based outreach, it was Lionsgate’s Hacksaw Ridge. The mini-major targeted high profile and influential members in Christian churches but also those in the military and political community as well via an early screening program. Essentially, Lionsgate was looking to these leaders as the early ambassadors of Hacksaw Ridge. The distributor hosted a special screening at the World War II Museum in New Orleans (presenting the location with Desmond Doss’s Medal of Honor while honoring WWII veterans). Gibson and the cast traveled to Washington D.C., where they honored the military at a USO visit and hosted a VIP screening event at the Navy Memorial. Gibson and the cast made the talk show rounds with GMA, Live, The Tonight Show, Ellen, Late Night, Today, Kimmel and the Late Late Show. Lionsgate also partnered with several popular online military sites including We Are The Mighty, Military.com, and Rally Point on promoting Hacksaw, including a large presence and screening program at Association Of The United States Army. Overall audience reached: 15M. The movie’s TV spot and media campaign kicked off five weeks out timed to the first Presidential debate. There were also promotions during such sporting events as the World Series, NCAA games and Sunday NFL games.
But still why is Hacksaw Ridge not posting Unbroken opening figures ($30.6M)? Post American Sniper, many in distribution have this idea that if its about a notable U.S. veteran, plays in red states, and appeals to both the military and faith-based, that the sky is the limit at the box office. “They’re two very different American heroes,” says rival studio distribution boss about Hacksaw Ridge‘s Desmond T. Doss and Unbroken‘s Louis Zamperini, “One was a Conscientious Objector and the other was a P.O.W. and former Olympian.” Some think that Unbroken was positioned better than Hacksaw Ridge: It opened over Christmas in the heart of awards season, was further propped by glossy mag celebrity director Angelina Jolie, and some in distribution believe more was spent on Unbroken‘s marketing campaign. Also, Zamperini was very much on moviegoers’ minds since he died six months before the movie opened. Rival distrib chiefs are divided whether Hacksaw should have opened during such a fierce weekend; that next weekend would have been better after TriStar scaled back its release of Ang Lee’s war movie Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (however, that last minute move would have cost Lionsgate millions in P&A). What Lionsgate gains by launching here is playing into Veterans Day next weekend which falls on a Friday. In addition, the distributor has been aggressive about screening Hacksaw Ridge to the awards community following its Venice Film Festival premiere. And if Hacksaw Ridge beats Apocalypto‘s $15M opening, it will go down as Gibson’s second best domestic debut as director after Passion of the Christ‘s $83.8M FSS.
A24’s Moonlight continues to wow in its limited release and stands right outside the top 10 in its third weekend expansion from 36 locations to 83 with a FSS of $984K. Focus Features interracial love story about 1958 couple Richard and Mildred Loving, entitled Loving, from director Jeff Nichols has a decent per theater of $45K in four locations…but that’s not as strong as Moonlight‘s opening theater average of $100K. Sony Pictures Classics also launched its documentary The Eagle Huntress which is looking at a FSS theater average near $6K.
Top 11 films per industry estimates as of Friday evening for the weekend of Nov. 4-6
1). Doctor Strange (SONY), 3,882 theaters / $32M-$33M Fri. (includes $9.4M previews)/3-day cume: $82M /Wk 1
2). Trolls (DWA/20th Century Fox), 4.060 theaters / $12.2M Fri. (includes $900K previews)/3-day cume: $42.4M /Wk 1
3). Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate), 2,886 theaters / $5.1M Fri. (includes $750K previews)/3-day cume: $14.7M /Wk 1
4). Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween (LG),…
