3rd Update, Saturday 12:09 AM: The March box office was divided between ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’, and if a film didn’t have the goods to survive, it was gone.
April will arguably have only one ‘have’, and that’s Universal’s Fate of the Furious next weekend which is looking at a three-day of $100M-plus per industry sources, with all other titles for the month falling at the wayside. April’s mudslide began yesterday with Sony’s Smurfs: Lost Village buried in third with an estimated three-day opening of $14M, trailing ruling titans DreamWorks Animation/Fox’s The Boss Baby and Disney’s almighty Beauty and the Beast which are filing $25.3M and $24.1M respectively.
Sony
On the bright side, Smurfs: Lost Village found an A CinemaScore, which beats the A- grades of its predecessors. In CinemaScore speak, animated films with As are always better than A- especially at this box office level. Smurfs 2 did a 4x multiple ($17.5M, $71M domestic), but even if Smurfs 3 emulates that or beats it a tad like with a 4.5x, it will still be lower stateside than its predecessor (low $60M). Last weekend, this reported $60M animated production before P&A banked $15.1M from 32 territories –which I’m told is not spectacular. China and major markets begin April 12, and Japan on April 28. By end of this weekend, worldwide, Smurfs 3 should stand at around $60M. The first Smurfs made $39M in China, the sequel $22M, and the laws of box office gravity always point down.
Stateside, Smurfs 3 is definitely not good for a branded franchise: It’s lower than the last Ice Age: Collusion Course which was rock bottom for that series ($21M FSS) and it’s lower than Warner Bros.’ Storks ($21M, final domestic $72.7M, $182.3M global, $70M production cost) and that was a stinker. For all the shouting about how overseas is going to save Smurfs 3′ hides, some rivals find it a bit dubious but for Sony it’s still TBD. However, the numbers speak for themselves. That $60M negative cost is attributed to Sony making Smurfs 3 in-house at its ImageWorks Vancouver studio. We dissect these little blue guys more further down.
Warner Bros.
Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Going in Style is besting its $8M-$10M tracking with $12.2M — could it beat Smurfs: Lost Village for third? The was certainly the case on Thursday night for the Michael Caine-Morgan Freeman-Alan Arkin comedy which beat Smurfs 3, $600K to $375K. That gross in relation to its estimated $25M production cost, isn’t amazing, and we’ve crucified Warner Bros. for their low budget guy comedies in the past for these types of numbers. But, Going in Style is different in that it’s aimed at the elderly and that demographic shows up to the theater slowly. Given how Going in Style is already beating its tracking, and its B+ CinemaScore (close to the A- of last spring’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2), this Zach Braff comedy could break-even after all ancillaries are counted. I’m told that these senior citizen comedies do quite well in the TV market. Screen Engine/ComScore’s PostTrak showed 55% females Going in Style while 81% were over the age of 25, 41% were over 45. Seventy-nine percent of the audience gave it a total positive.
Pureflix’s Faith-based title The Case for Christ with an estimated $4.6M FSS ranks as the third best opening for the label after God’s Not Dead ($9M opening) and God’s Not Dead 2 ($7.6M). Pic is based on the bestselling 1998 book about journalist Lee Strobel, who was an atheist, and in effort to disapprove his wife’s Christian faith, ultimately finds the Lord. The pic is planted on this weekend to play into Holy week. Strobel has been flying around the country for months doing interviews to tell his story and raise awareness for the film. Pureflix held mini-screenings, showing footage to Christian leaders for their endorsement. Guides were distributed to churches, in particular a 16-page Easter Outreach campaign program to help churches use the film to reach new members. Also, the book was re-released with the new cover to match the theatrical one-sheet. Pic directed by My Date With Drew‘s Jon Gunn stars Faye Dunaway, Robert Forster, Erika Christensen and Mike Vogel as Strobel.
Focus Features
Meanwhile, Focus Feature expanded its Jessica Chastain WWII movie The Zookeeper’s Wife and while it’s currently notched in 11th place, it’s even with last weekend’s opening of $3.2M. By Sunday, pic’s running cume will stand at $7.9M, beating Chastain’s specialty titles A Most Violent Year ($5.7M), the disastrous Miss Sloane ($3.5M), and in the near future, Tree of Life ($13.3M). Given its World War II theme and momentum, the pic brings to mind Weinstein Co.’s Woman in Gold which was a little 2015 spring indie darling ending its run at $33.1M (granted, it had a different type of limited rollout). That 60% fresh Rotten Tomatoes certainly helps too.
Sony
How do you raise the stakes on a Smurfs sequel? Why, by having them meet more Smurfs in a lost village. It’s apparent, the masses aren’t buying it. The studio has called this movie a reboot, and it only is in the sense that it’s pure animation from top to bottom and not a live-action hybrid like the first two films. Arguably, it’s a challenge to go higher than the high stakes the first film set by dropping the Smurfs in our own live world, specifically New York City. And building Smurfs 3 around another pop star –in this case Demi Lovato taking over Smurfette from Katy Perry– doesn’t add anything new. The trailers sold a juvenile humor (Brainy Smurf being eaten by a flower), and if Sony was serious about rebooting the series, they’d rip a page from Hotel Transylvania which is centered around Adam Sandler. What Smurfs needs is a defining marquee comedic sense of humor — ala Sandler in Hotel Transylvania, Steve Carell in Despicable Me or Mike Myers and Eddie Murphy in Shrek — that rings through the film, breathes life into it, and shakes it up (and if you’re going after young girls, how about Melissa McCarthy?). It’s one of the reasons why Illumination’s Chris Meledandri has made Carell a creative partner in the Despicable Me movies beyond his voiceover duties. Sure, you’ll lose some of the wholesome luster of Smurfs, but maybe people will be more excited to see it. Much like the first 2011 feature blew up Peyo’s canon ($563.7M worldwide), the same thing has to boldly occur again for the longevity of this franchise on the big screen.
Sony
Some box office analysts are certainly screaming about the bloody release date: Why open Smurfs: The Lost Village in the wake of Beauty and the Beast and The Boss Baby? Typically animated features are spaced out on the summer release calendar by at least three weeks. Sony’s thinking here was to play into Easter business and take advantage of kids off from school, which for K-12 jumps from 28% on Monday to 74% on Good Friday. Again, if there was something cool to see here, business might be better, but Smurfs 3 is a handholder feature toon and it’s in competition with an anarchistic animated comedy in Boss Baby, and a live-action Disney musical legend in Beauty and the Beast.
Shutterstock
Despite the low result here for Smurfs 3, Sony and the cast took to the street to sell the movie. Various online clips showing how the characters are animated and how Lovato and co-stars Rainn Wilson, Ellie Kemper, and Michelle Rodriguez acted out their voiceovers went viral. Lovato and Joe Mangianello lit up the Empire State Building in blue to honor International Day of Happiness in conjunction with the United Nations Foundation and UNICEF. They even stopped by the UN before the General Assembly. The event garnered over 125M impressions. Parent bloggers across the country were engaged for the entirety of the campaign, from the trailer launch to the pic’s premiere. Bloggers were invited to share materials from coloring pages and Easter decorations to trailers and clips. They hosted screenings across countries, and attended the premiere and interviewed talent at the junket. The theme of the premiere was “Give Back To Your Village”. Sony Pictures Animation gave back to their village by naming Culver City America’s Smurfs Village with local businesses also participating in this city-wide event.
We’ll have more updates in the AM.
For the weekend of April 7-9 based on industry estimates as of Friday PM:
1.) The Boss Baby (20th Century Fox/DWA), 3,829 theaters (+56) / $6.78M Fri. (-57%) / 3-day cume: $25.3m (-50%)/ Total: $88.4M/Wk 2
2.) Beauty and the Beast (DIS), 3,969 theaters (-241) / $6.55M Fri. (-49%) / 3-day cume: $24.1M (-47%) / Total cume: $431.9M/ Wk 4
3.) Smurfs: The Lost Village (Sony), 3,610 theaters / $4M Fri. (includes $375K previews) / 3-day cume: $14M /Wk 1
4.) Going in Style (WB/VR), 3,061 theaters / $4.2M Fri. (includes $600K ) / 3-day cume: $12.2M (includes previews of $600K)/Wk 1
5.) Ghost in the Shell (PAR/DWA/REL), 3,440 theaters (0) / $2.1M Fri. (-72%) / 3-day cume: $7.4M (-60%)/Total: $31.7M/Wk 2
6.) Saban’s Power Rangers (LGF), 2,978 theaters (-715) / $1.63M Fri. (-59%) / 3-day cume: $5.9M (-58%) / Total cume: $75.6M / Wk 3
7.) Kong: Skull Island (20th/Legendary), 2,753 theaters (-388) / $1.5M Fri. (-37%) / 3-day cume: $5.7M (-33%)/ Total cume: $156.5M / Wk 5
8.) The Case for Christ (Pureflix), 1,174 theaters / $1.6M Fri./ 3-day cume: $4.6M /Wk 1
9) Logan (Fox), 1,949 theaters (-374)/ $1.1M Fri. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $4.2M (-31%)/ Total cume: $218.2M / Wk 6
10.) Get Out (UNI), 1,574 theaters (-270) / $1.19M Fri. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $4.1M (-28%)/ Total cume: $162.9M / Wk 7
11.) Zookeeper’s Wife (FOC), 804 theaters (+263) / $932K Fri. (-10%) / 3-day: $3.2M (0%)/Total: $7.9M/ Wk 2
2nd UPDATE, midday: Right now it’s a…
