4th writethru, Saturday AM: Typically during a four-day holiday stretch, studios try to release some of their best product so as to capitalize on those moviegoers off from work and school.
But for the second time since MLK, we’re seeing a number of studio wide releases die over the Presidents’ Day period, while last weekend’s holdovers are rallying.
Warner Bros’ The Lego Batman Movie and Universal’s Fifty Shades Darker are posting great holds from what we were originally saw, with an even bigger bump from Monday’s business which will see 84% K-12 off from school with an additional 34% colleges on break (ComScore).
Universal
Lego Batman is dipping 39% in its second weekend at 4,088 theaters with $32.1M over three and an estimated $41.9M over four. Cume by Monday is expected to stand at $106.4M. The Chris McKay-directed animated movie easily wins Friday with $7.5M.
Fifty Shades Darker, thanks to playing into the Presidents’ Day weekend, is only expected to shed an amazing -55% with $20.8M over FSS. Four-day is at $23.9M with a running cume by EOD Monday of $92.6M. Uni expected this hold all along: Darker was never going to weather the -74% drop of its predecessor which made 56% of its domestic gross over a four-day combined Valentine’s Day/Presidents’ Day stretch. As we saw coming out of Darker‘s Valentine’s Day $11M climax — fans love what they see, and they’re going.
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Lionsgate
Even though Lionsgate/Summit’s John Wick: Chapter 2 is ranked fourth behind Uni/Legendary’s The Great Wall, the Keanu Reeves movie is also reaping the rewards of playing into the four-day holiday loaded with great word of mouth and totally excellent reviews. The sequel’s projected -51% ease in its second weekend isn’t that far from Kingsman: The Secret Service, Fifty Shades’ male counterprogrammer two years ago. That movie declined -49% in its second weekend. John Wick 2‘s will lift an estimated $15M over three and $17.8M over four for a near $60M 11-day haul.
Universal
Uni is experiencing a ying-yang situation this weekend. With great riches from Fifty Shades Darker and fantastic holds from Split (-24%) and A Dog’s Purpose (-18%), comes a great low from the Matt Damon Legendary fantasy epic The Great Wall which is turning to dust stateside with a projected $17.1M over FSS and $19.7M over four in third place. The movie was chiefly built for China’s great moviegoing population as well as other foreign territories that are dazzled by such flashy action epics. The financiers and producers knew they weren’t going to win the United States over with this $150M epic (which carries an estimated $110M-$120M P&A), hence the reason why they opened in China and other territories first where the movie has already amassed $225M.
When the first trailer dropped last fall, some U.S. media outlets griped over the pic’s whitewashing with lead actor Damon, who they believed appeared as a savior type to the Chinese. But that’s not how the film plays out storywise. Furthermore, Middle Kingdom moviegoers embraced this Zhang Yimou pic so much, they spent $171M to see it. Yimou and the cast emphasized at their New York Comic-Con panel The Great Wall‘s multi-cultural efforts and attributes in front and behind the camera in addition to the powerful portrayal of women.
So, why aren’t Americans watching?
Legendary
Essentially, moviegoers here haven’t totally jived with these new, expensive East-West collaborations like Warcraft and Great Wall. Plus, as critics observed, Great Wall sacrifices great story for great action. The Wall Street Journal‘s Joe Morgenstern exclaimed, “(It) isn’t a bad idea for a fantasy, but the computer-generated monsters, like the film as a whole, are numbingly repetitive, and devoid of any power to move, scare or stir us” while New York Times’ Manohla Dargis points out, “The whole thing plays out as if it had been thought up by someone who, while watching Game of Thrones and smoking a bowl, started riffing on walls, China and production money.” Audiences who dared to shell out for Great Wall gave it a B CinemaScore, which is under the B+ that Warcraft received. Even though Great Wall isn’t based on a videogame, production-wise, it’s the closest B.O. comp. Those under 18 thought Great Wall was great with an A-, but only 13% of them were in the theater. Sixty-four percent of Great Wall‘s crowd was comprised of men, 36% females, 71% over 25 with 43% buying tickets because of Damon.
Does The Great Wall turn a profit? Wanda’s response to the pic’s sour fortunes was “the failure is fictitious.” We’ll have to wait until Uni reports their overseas ticket sales for an additional 21 territories this weekend including Australia, Korea, Russia and the UK. Rival distributors have severe doubts that the film in its entirety will be in the black. Uni limited its exposure to a reported 25% while the rest is broken up between Legendary, China Film Group and Le Vision Pictures. Distribution partners in the PROC are CFG, Le Vision, Wanda and Legendary East. Because it’s a new type of Chinese co-production with the U.S., 40% of that $171M B.O. can be brought back to the U.S. versus the usual 25%-28% rental that many Hollywood films count from PROC. But one financier tells us there’s no money in Chinese video or TV for U.S. productions. We’ll be watching this one closely. The Great Wall has been seen as a potential financial model for future China-U.S. co-productions.
‘Three O’Clock High’
Universal
Remember that 1987 Universal comedy Three O’Clock High? It was about a nerd’s high schoolyard battle with a bully. That concept didn’t work back then at the B.O. ($3.7M) and neither is Warner Bros/New Line’s Fist Fight 30 years later with the R-rated comedy grossing $3.9M Friday, $1o.7M over three and $12.3M over four in fifth place. New Line kept this comedy at a low $25M budget with a low $30M estimated P&A spend. Cube, who typically plays the angry straight-man in a comedy, has made magic before with such co-stars like Kevin Hart. But don’t blame the marquee power of Cube’s co-star Charlie Day. It’s the concept that’s at fault with Fist Fight. Even though the school yard fight is between teachers here, and not students like Three O’Clock High, it’s the same low stakes comedy, and that’s not enough to pull people off the couch and into the multiplex. Those yearning to watch this type of bawdy comedy can take in HBO’s Danny McBride series Vice Principals on demand at home. Reviewers are the biggest bully at 34% rotten. CinemaScore crowds gave the movie a B, which is under the B+s earned by Day’s Horrible Bosses movies and Cube’s Ride Along (A) and Ride Along 2 (B+). Essentially, there’s a lot of low-brow humor in Fist Fight, versus the cleverness of say a New Line title like We’re the Millers. That movie’s clever high concept centered around a pot dealer who creates a fake family to move a shipment across the border. Because of Fist Fight‘s low-brow humor, it comes as no surprise to learn who turned up: Those under 18ers who could buy tickets gave Fist Fight its best grade of an A (19%), while under 25 (39%) graded it an A-. Males repped 54%, over 25 were at 61%. Fifty-five percent were in auditoriums because they love R-rated comedies, while 42% came for Cube and Day.
Warner Bros.
RelishMix noticed a divide in the social conversation for Fist Fight. Some felt in this environment of anti-bullying and teachers education issues, Fist Fight “took place in the wrong environment. To these comments, other fans are reigning down with harsh criticism, saying this looks like the funniest comedy in years. This contingent loves the R-rating, the red band trailer – and the cast. It’s just a true notable to see such impassioned discussion happening for a rated-R comedy.” Heading into the weekend, Fist Fight had its best promoters in Ice Cube (25M+ followers across Instagram, Twitter, Facebook) as well as Tracy Morgan’s 4.3M. However, viral video views of the trailer according to Relish Mix have been at an awful 5:1 –that’s the rate at which trailers for Bad Santa 2 and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot were being spread around, and those titles bit the dust at the B.O. We hear despite this snafu, New Line likes Fist Fight director Richie Keen and have already signed him to helm the action comedy Partners.
New Regency
And if you thought The Great Wall and Fist Fight were singing the blues, New Regency/20th Century Fox’s A Cure For Wellness at 2,704 theaters in 11th ninth place with $4.1M over three and $4.7M over four is DOA. New Regency is carrying the weight for this $40M budgeted Gore Verbinski-directed title. Fox showed off the first 30 minutes at a December product reel, and as beautiful as the film looked (and critics have noticed that), it’s as confusing as all heck. As a result, it’s not stoking genre crowds with a C+ CinemaScore. There’s a mixed message here in the marketing: It’s a genre thriller but Fox positioned it like it was a mass-appealing pic for guys, and shelled out for a Super Bowl ad (and we know those went for $5M per 30 seconds). According to CinemaScore, mostly females at 55% turned out on Friday, 56% over 25. Fifty-one percent bought tickets because it was a trippy genre film, while 13% were DeHaan fans.
In a desperate maneuver, Fox tried to pique interest for Cure with a fake news site about the pic’s spa setting this week (saying it’s where Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met, plus that Lady Gaga’s half-time show was a tribute to Muslims). The digital stunt blew up in the studio’s face with RelishMix noticing social media’s ire in response to the…
