UPDATE, 8AM Saturday: Warner Bros. is reporting Friday at $ 30.5M for American Sniper – not only a January opening day record, but more than any Clint Eastwood film has ever made in a weekend. Sony’s The Wedding Ringer has a studio-reported estimate of $ 7M and on track to make a four day of $ 23-$ 24M, outgrossing its budget in four days. “It will be in the market for weeks to come and it’s a real money maker for us,” beamed Sony domestic distribution head Rory Bruer. With a new batch of projections released this AM, studio B.O. analysts are seeing Warner Bros.’ American Sniper clearing $ 80M by Monday. Warner Bros. preferred not to comment on the lofty figures, which makes sense because it’s better to get another day under your belt as the weekend progresses and projections become stronger.
PREVIOUS, 2:04AM Saturday: American Sniper is huge. So huge that the Clint Eastwood-directed film could, by sunrise, make more in one day than any one of his films ever made in a weekend. Per late night industry estimates, the Warner Bros./Village Roadshow pic looks to gun down $ 29.1M in its first expanded Friday, within inches of blowing away Eastwood’s previous weekend high, 2009’s Gran Torino at $ 29.5M. Hands down, American Sniper’s Friday booty ranks as the highest grossing day ever charted by a film in January – and that goes for an opening (previous record holder was 2008’s Cloverfield at $ 17.16M) and single day (prior was the $ 25.8M B.O. racked up by Avatar on Jan. 2, 2010).
Whenever weekend B.O. projections are made from Friday noon matinees, they tend to be significantly off come night time. But tonight, the industry continues to just project higher and higher weekend openings for American Sniper as east and west coast theaters close out their tills. Insiders see a tentpole trajectory for American Sniper throughout the weekend, with the bulk of the weekend’s B.O. being front-loaded tonight. Taking into consideration Sunday’s two NFL playoff games, which are apt to steal guys away, American Sniper could lower its guns by close to 30%-40% from its Saturday gross. As of tonight, the outlook for the Eastwood film is $ 66.8M over three-days and $ 75.4M over four – easily surpassing the previous January and MLK weekend holiday record set by last year’s Ride Along which made $ 41.5M and $ 48.6M respectively over the three and four-days. In sum, American Sniper is an amazing feat for Warner Bros. On the surface, the film appeared risky with its anti-war message. In a grand gesture, Eastwood premiered the film at AFI on Veterans Day. Ask distribution folks why the film is an anomaly at the B.O., and they cite a perfect storm of reasons: Bradley Cooper’s star power, the NY Times bestseller status of Chris Kyle’s memoir, the film’s A+ Cinemascore as well as its awards season traction which counts six Oscar noms including best picture and best actor Cooper. While there’s definitely a groundswell of support from the military sector for American Sniper – the film screened extensively at military bases, some of which Cooper visited, not to mention the outreach to veteran groups — distrib insiders observe that American Sniper is playing strong everywhere; not just the red states. Warner Bros. led with an upscale campaign for the Eastwood film, opening it on Christmas day in four New York and LA theaters where it has hit a number of screen average highs.
Screenwriter Jason Hall met with former Navy SEAL sniper Chris Kyle prior to the publication of his autobiography. Hall saw the project through several drafts, particularly in the wake of Kyle’s sudden murder. Originally Steven Spielberg was attached to direct with Cooper headlining, but the Lincoln director dropped out in August 2013. A few weeks later, Eastwood boarded the project.
As for the rest of the chart, there’s a halo effect emanating from American Sniper. Sony-Screen Gems’ Kevin Hart-Josh Gad comedy The Wedding Ringer is looking at a $ 6.9M Friday and an industry estimated three-day of $ 20.5M and four day of $ 23.8M, which is in line with the $ 20M+ Hart’s openers like Think Like a Man Too and About Last Night. The Wedding Ringer hooked an A- Cinemascore on par with Ride Along’s A and Think Like a Man Too’s A-.
There’s a great backstory to how The Wedding Ringer made to the big screen. Screenwriters Jeremy Garelick and Jay Lavender originally sold the script in 2001 to Miramax when it was named The Golden Tux. Producer Adam Fields rescued the script from an archive of unproduced Miramax projects (the studio has its logo on the front of the film) and along with producer Will Packer, who has been behind a slew of Hart hits (including Ride Along, Think Like a Man and About Last Night), set the project up at Screen Gems. There’s been a huge word of mouth campaign for the film, with 300 screenings across the country, including colleges. Whenever his tour schedule permitted, Hart would drop by. Hart and Gad even crashed weddings around the country to spur WOM for the film, see the video below:
Weinstein Co.’s family pic Paddington, which has accumulated both a 98% Rotten Tomatoes fresh score as well as an A Cinemascore, made an estimated $ 4.8M Friday with an eye on $ 19.3M for FSS and $ 24.1M over the four-day holiday. Saturday biz looks to shoot up over 60% from Friday thanks to matinees. Per RelishMix, the kid pic has gained momentum from the film’s 24M YouTube viewers, 37M social media users as well as Nicole Kidman’s official Facebook page which has promo-ed the film to her 10M friends.
The one new release getting the short end of the stick on the charts is Legendary’s $ 70M Michael Mann title Blackhat from Universal which might post a FSS outside the top 10 with an industry estimate of $ 4M at 2,567 screens. On Friday, Blackhat made $ 1.4M. There’s no excuse that American Sniper is stealing away all the male biz from Blackhat, because guys are still shelling out for Taken 3 which made an estimated $ 4.3M Friday and is looking to raise its domestic cume to $ 66M by Monday. The deck is stacked against Blackhat with a C- Cinemascore and an overall 33% Rotten Tomatometer score; despite the fact that the NY Times and LA Times both gave the Chris Hemsworth thriller a thumbs up. Earlier in his career, Mann would hit middleweight grosses for his noir crime fare such as 1995’s Heat ($ 67.4M domestic B.O.) and his 2001 biopic Ali ($ 58.2M). As of late, the director charted career highs with 2004’s Collateral ($ 101M) and 2009’s Public Enemies ($ 97.1M), however, Blackhat looks to bow as the third lowest bow of his career after 1999’s The Insider ($ 6.7M). Hope resides abroad. Outside of his stellar franchise titles like Thor and Snow White and the Huntsmen, Hemsworth’s previous adult-geared title Rush, made $ 63.3M abroad to its stateside $ 26.9M.
By Monday, Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 looks to have a cume of $ 332.8M; just $ 345K away from overtaking Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy as 2014’s highest grossing film.
More analysis to come in the AM.
The top 11 films based on industry estimates and ranked by three-day figures:
1). American Sniper (WB), 3,555 theaters (+3,551)/ $ 29.1M Fri. (+18,537%) /3-Day:$ 66.8M (+11,427%)/4-Day:$ 75.4M /Total cume: $ 78.8M/ Wk 3
2). The Wedding Ringer (Sony), 3,003 theaters/ $ 6.9M Fri./ 3-Day: $ 20.5M/ 4-Day: $ 23.8M /Wk 1
3). Paddington (TWC), 3,303 theaters / $ 4.8M Fri./ 3-Day: $ 19.3M / 4-Day: $ 24.1M /Wk 1
4). Taken 3 (Fox), 3,594 theaters (0)/$ 4.3M Fri(-71%). / 3-Day: $ 14.5M (-63%)/4-Day: $ 17.3M /Total cume: $ 66M/ Wk 2
5). Selma (Par), 2,235 theaters (+56) / $ 2.49M Fri. (-34%)/ 3-Day: $ 9.1M (-19%)/4-Day: $ 11.2M /Total cume: $ 28.8M / Wk 4
6). Into The Woods (DIS), 2,758 theaters (-75) / $ 1.7M Fri. (-31%)/ 3-Day: $ 6.8M (-29%)/4-Day: $ 8.9M /Total cume:$ 116.7M / Wk 4
7). The Imitation Game (TWC), 1,611 theaters (+45) / $ 1.8M Fri. (-14%) / 3-Day: $ 6.4M (-11%)/4-Day: $ 7.7M /Total cume: $ 51.3M / Wk 8
8). The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies (WB), 2,220 theaters (-1182)/$ 1.3M (-47%)Fri./ 3-Day: $ 5.2M (-44%) /4-Day: $ 6.7M /Total cume: $ 245.9M/ Wk 5
9). Night At The Museum: Secret Of The Tomb (FOX), 2,437 theaters (-934) / $ 975K Fri. (-40%) / 3-Day: $ 4.3M(-35%)/4-Day: $ 5.7M /Total cume: $ 106.7M / Wk 5
10). Unbroken (UNI), 2,602 theaters (-699) / $ 1.2M Fri. (-51%)/ 3-Day: $ 4.1M (-49%)/4-Day: $ 4.8M/Total cume: $ 109.1M / Wk 4
11). Blackhat (UNI), 2,567 theaters / $ 1.4M Fri./ 3-Day: $ 4M/4-Day: $ 4.8M / Wk 1
Notables:
Birdman (FSL) 471 theaters (+243)/$ 383K Fri. (+139%)/3-day: $ 1.4M (+141%)/4-day: $ 1.7M/Total cume: $ 28.4M/Wk 14
Wild (FSL), 764 theaters (-522)/ $ 382K Fri. (-53%)/ 3-Day: $ 1.2M (-53%)/4-day: $ 1.5M/Total cume: $ 33.1M / Wk 7
The Theory of Everything (FOC), 509 theaters (+101)/ $ 255K Fri. (+40%)/ 3-Day: $ 949K (+41%)/4-day: $ 1.1M/Total cume: $ 27.5M / Wk 11
Foxcatcher (SPC), 759 theaters (+522)/ $ 249K Fri. /3-Day: $ 926K (+92%)/4-day: $ 1M/Total cume: $ 10M / Wk 10
Spare Parts (LGF) / 440 theaters/ $ 250K Fri ./ 3-day: $ 828K /4-day cume: $ 1.027M/Wk 1
Whiplash (SPC) 189 theaters (+120)/$ 94K Fri. /3-day cume: $ 351K (+145%)/4-day cume: 423K/Total cume:$ 6.7M/Wk 15
Two Days, One Night (IFC) 15 theaters (+10) / $ 14K Fri. / 3-Day: $ 52K (+27%)/4-day cume: $ 64K/ Total cume: $ 248K / Wk 4
2ND UPDATE, 2:56 PM Friday: Industry weekend projections are being floated around showing a $ 61M+ three-day for American Sniper and a four-day of $ 70.3M. At this point, those figures have to be taken with a grain of salt as they’re based on matinees. As we get closer to the evening, solid figures roll in as the East Coast theaters close out their cash drawers. A more sound estimate for American Sniper is $ 55M over three days. Why? Sunday is gonna be a hard day to estimate with two NFL conference championship games competing for male eyeballs (the AFC’s New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts and NFC’s Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers). Sony/Screen Gems’ The Wedding Ringer is still looking at the mid-$ 20Ms over four days, including the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. That film will do more business than the Weinstein Co.’s Paddington, which will rally back with weekend matinees. The kid pic should do low-$ 20Ms over four. Universal-Legendary’s Blackhat is looking to fall outside the top 5 this weekend with $ 5.8M over FSS and $ 6.6M over four.
UPDATE, Friday, 7:44AM: Warner Bros/Village Roadshow’s wide expansion of American Sniper is just getting warmed up, racking up $ 5.3M last night — amazing for a Clint Eastwood war drama. Sony’s 
The Wedding Ringer rang up $ 800K in 2,354 locales, on track for a low- to mid-$ 20M three-day. Universal/Legendary’s Blackhat from director Michael Mann also held some sneaks and took in $ 179K at 1,755 engagements. American Sniper‘s preview ranks as the highest preview night ever for an R-rated drama, besting last year’s Lone Survivor, which made $ 1.9M. Sure, $ 5.3M isn’t Guardians Of The Galaxy preview cash ($ 11.2M), nor is it The Hunger Games: Mockingjay money ($ 17M preview), but those were big studio franchise titles. Last night’s results are great for American Sniper considering it’s a war drama. Distrib insiders are projecting that American Sniper actually could make $ 50M+ over three days during the MLK Jr. holiday frame — which would be mind-blowing for an Eastwood film, making it a career opening high for the director and the month of January. Also working in favor for American Sniper‘s turnstiles are the six Oscar noms it locked and loaded yesterday including Best Picture and Best Actor for Bradley Cooper. Last night’s fantastic results are only an indication of what is yet to come…
Previous, Wednesday: After collecting $ 3.3M from four theaters with record screen averages since its Christmas bow, Clint Eastwood’s biopic American Sniper about Navy SEAL sniper Chris Kyle is going wide this weekend at 3,555 theaters and expected to explode at the box office, delivering an all-time $ 50M+ opening for the Oscar-winning director. A number of factors are fueling what is anticipated to be a record FSS at the January box office for the Warner Bros./Village Roadshow title: Aside from being in the awards conversation, American Sniper has resonated with Faith-based and military crowds. One studio executive this morning believed that red state moviegoers will be particularly attracted to American Sniper given how such Middle-Eastern war-time topics are in the headlines, read the ISIS threats, particularly in the wake of the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Of course, the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday is expected to churn business. The percent of Kids K-12 off are expected to spike from 8% on Friday to 95% on Monday, while those colleges off are expected to swell from 31% to 92% over the four-day frame per Rentrak Theatrical.
Fandango reports that more than 70% of their pre-sales show American Sniper on pace to be Eastwood’s best-selling weekend ever on the online ticket sales site. Scoring a riveting 88 out of 100 points on Fandango’s Fanticipation movie buzz indicator, Sniper is outselling last year’s war drama Lone Survivor. Eastwood’s previous largest 3-day was the wide expansion of 2009’s Gran Torino, which actually starred the multi-hyphenate. That film made $ 29.5M after four weeks of limited release before finaling at $ 148.09M. Gran Tornio is also the director-star’s highest grossing title stateside.
Eyeing second is Sony’s Kevin Hart-Josh Gad comedy The Wedding Ringer looking to make $ 20-$ 25M, a gross that’s in the neighborhood of Hart’s relationship comedy title About Last Night which bowed last February to $ 25.6M. That film seems to be the prime comp for insiders versus Hart’s record-breaking MLK bow from last year, Ride Along which made $ 41.5M.
Dueling for third are 20th Century Fox’s Taken 3 and Weinstein Co.’s Paddington. Taken 3 is looking to remain solid with about $ 17.6M, an estimated 55% decline in its second sesh on par with Taken 2. Through Tuesday, Taken 3 has made $ 44.9M.
It’s been four weeks since the last set of family pics bowed (Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and Annie), so Weinstein Co.’s Paddington, about the famed bear from Michael Bond’s books, looks to whet the appetites of boys and girls. The film in 3,303 theaters looks to make $ 17.5M. Further moving the meter for Paddington, is the music video that Gwen Stefani and Pharrell teamed up for, “Shine”, which had collected 1.5M hits on the TWC YouTube channel.
Michael Mann’s Chris Hemsworth hacker action-thriller Blackhat from Universal is eyeing under $ 10M for the three-day in 2,566 venues– not a good start for the production which was fully financed by Legendary. Universal is only distributing. Industry estimates peg pic’s budget at $ 70M. The film will get some extra dough from a handful of overseas markets where it’s going day and date. It’s Mann’s first film in five years since 2009’s Public Enemies, which was an Independence Day 2009 counter-programmer with a $ 40.1M five-day opening and a $ 97.1M domestic cume.
Paramount’s Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. biopic Selma, ever so prime the holiday weekend, should do between $ 7.5M-10M for the four day.
In over 400 hubs, Lionsgate is unspooling Spare Parts, a story about four Hispanic high school students who form a robotics club and ultimately rival the reigning MIT tech club in the field. Pic stars George Lopez and Jamie Lee Curtis and should do $ 2.5-$ 3M over four-days.
Brian Brooks will weigh in with the limited releases this weekend including Sony Classics’ Still Alice which recently won a Golden Globe drama trophy for best actress Julianne Moore.
Anthony D’Alessandro
